In an interview, Saeid Tavakkoli addressed questions on Radio Iran about the causes of the energy imbalance and public concerns regarding the government's response.
Here, the full text of interview follows:
Given the messages received from people concerned about the gas situation, could you explain the reason for the imbalance that has reportedly brought half the country to a standstill?
Firstly, the closures in the country are not due to gas shortages. In fact, the shutdowns in some cities are not caused by the energy imbalance but are influenced by other factors such as air pollution or weather conditions in each province. For instance, in Tehran, air pollution has led to reduced activities.
Regarding the imbalance, in winter, natural gas consumption patterns shift worldwide, with demand increasing significantly during this season. For example, yesterday, 858 million cubic meters of gas were injected into the national network. However, as the weather gets colder, household and commercial consumption peaks, reaching approximately 671 million cubic meters yesterday. This increase is directly linked to lower temperatures and the need for heating. One of the most effective ways to manage the energy imbalance is by changing consumption patterns.
If the cold weather persists, household and commercial consumption will naturally reach its maximum levels, as seen with yesterday's 671.4 million cubic meters. The main reason for this rise is the drop in temperature and the intensifying cold.
The remaining gas is allocated to other sectors, such as power plants. Yesterday (Monday), nearly 110 million cubic meters of gas were delivered to power plants, which is remarkable given the current temperatures. The rest was distributed to industrial and major manufacturing units, which further highlights the issue of imbalance in the energy supply.
What is the exact scale of the imbalance?
First, it’s important to understand the true meaning of imbalance. An imbalance refers to a lack of equilibrium between production and demand. We assess total demand and compare it with current production. At present, the imbalance is clear, and we must address it by managing consumption and using alternative fuels in power plants.
If people lower their home temperatures by 2 degrees Celsius, it can significantly reduce the consumption of liquid fuel in power plants. Part of this imbalance is managed through consumption restrictions, while another part is addressed using alternative fuels. For instance, in the power sector or power plants, this issue can be mitigated with alternative fuels. This is why we encourage everyone to join the ‘2 Degrees Lower’ campaign, which helps reduce liquid fuel consumption in power plants without contributing to pollution.
During winter, air inversion increases pollution. Approximately 79% of our gas production is consumed in residential and commercial sectors. Therefore, if people conserve energy, we can prevent more severe crises.
How much gas is consumed in the residential sector?
Today, 671.5 million cubic meters of gas have been consumed in the residential and commercial sectors, accounting for nearly 79% of total consumption. Over the course of a year, residential and commercial consumption typically ranges between 24% and 25%. Annually, 34% of gas is allocated to power plants, 34% to industry, 25% to residential use, 3% to transportation, and 4% to other uses such as public services and agriculture.
However, during cold weather, the share of residential and commercial consumption rises dramatically, from an average of 24–25% to as high as 70–80%. If temperatures drop further, this consumption can peak at 82%, which is a significant figure.
To help reduce energy consumption, especially in the commercial sector, simple steps can be taken. One effective method is adjusting home temperatures to between 18 and 21 degrees Celsius, a range recognized worldwide as optimal. Additionally, wearing warmer clothing and setting water heaters and heating systems to temperatures between 55 and 60 degrees Celsius can be highly effective. Other measures include covering air vents, using insulation, and optimizing radiator usage. These steps should be applied in occupied spaces, not in areas that are vacant.
What about claims of significant gas exports affecting domestic supply?
Accurate information must be communicated to the public. It’s important to clarify that 79% of the country’s gas consumption is allocated to residential and commercial sectors. According to data recorded yesterday, nearly 110 million cubic meters of gas were consumed by power plants. Minimum export levels have been set, which cannot be halted due to long-term commitments and high associated costs.
Our country is well-positioned in terms of gas resources and reserves, and exports remain a critical aspect of gas trade. However, when domestic consumers burn gas inefficiently, increased consumption leaves less available for export, putting pressure on the National Iranian Gas Company.
One key point to note is that our country’s energy consumption intensity is 3.3 times the global average. The amount of gas we consume equals China’s production levels. Given that 72% of the country’s energy portfolio relies on gas, any imbalance can have significant negative effects on the network.
To address this imbalance, we must focus on two key strategies: managing consumption and optimizing energy use. Adopting proper standards and promoting energy-saving practices are essential. Moreover, we must recognize that energy waste benefits no one and harms future generations.
As temperatures drop, gas consumption rises—every one-degree Celsius drop increases consumption by approximately 25 million cubic meters. Therefore, collaboration between the government and the public is crucial to effectively manage energy consumption.
So far, thanks to ongoing efforts, there have been no gas outages in the residential sector, and we hope to maintain this trend. To resolve the gas imbalance crisis in Iran, we need a comprehensive plan focused on optimizing consumption and investing in production capacity. These measures include energy price reforms and improving infrastructure efficiency to ensure a stable gas supply during the cold seasons.
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