The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) traded in a wide range of about $60 to $83 a barrel during 2025. On Jan. 2, 2025, the second trading day of the year, the basket fell more than 4% from the same period a year earlier to $74.86 a barrel. Just 16 days later, on Jan. 16, prices climbed to their annual peak of $83.07.

Stricter oil sanctions on Russia, colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere and stronger demand for heating fuels, along with OPEC+’s continued production cuts, were among the main factors supporting prices during that period.

The broader trend in 2025, however, was negative. Escalating trade tensions between the United States and other major economies, particularly China, and growing concerns over weaker global demand quickly pushed oil prices lower. Within four months, the OPEC basket fell to about $63 a barrel.

Prices rose again during a separate period marked by a 12-day war imposed on Iran and heightened uncertainty over supply, with the basket climbing above $77 a barrel. That rally proved short-lived. Prices retreated to around $68 a barrel shortly after a ceasefire was announced.

In the final days of 2025, the OPEC basket dropped to its lowest level in five years, pressured by forecasts from international institutions pointing to an oversupplied market and by rising expectations of progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. On Dec. 16, the basket traded at $59.54 a barrel.

The OPEC basket ended the year on Dec. 29 at $61.03 a barrel, compared with an average price of $80.49 in 2024. Overall, the benchmark recorded a roughly 24% decline year over year.

Latest Developments in Iran Heavy Crude Prices

OPEC data show that Iran’s Heavy crude tracked the OPEC basket closely throughout 2025, with no significant divergence in most periods. The decline in Iran’s oil prices largely reflected the broader downturn in global oil markets rather than factors specific to Iran’s supply.

According to OPEC’s latest monthly report, released in December, the price of Iran Heavy crude averaged $64.25 a barrel in October 2025, down about 24% from its 2024 average of $80.30. Assessments also indicate that prices continued to fall in December in line with the wider oil market, likely marking a five-year low for the benchmark during that month.