North Sea Brent crude ended last week (Friday, June 27) at $67.77 per barrel, marking a weekly decline of nearly 10%. The primary reason for the drop was the de-escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, which temporarily reduced the risk of major supply disruptions.

At the height of the tensions, oil prices briefly surpassed $80 per barrel. Some analysts warned that if clashes resume and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil exports could be disrupted, pushing prices to $200–$300 per barrel.

Mortaza Behrouzifar, a faculty member at the International Energy Studies Institute, said that while geopolitical tensions easing removed the risk premium from the oil market, renewed conflict or damage to oil infrastructure could trigger a price surge, potentially reaching triple digits.

Other key developments in the oil market last week included a decline in US crude stockpiles as of June 20, increased demand from independent Chinese refineries, and a rise in oil shipments from Iran.

Although recent oil price fluctuations were largely driven by security concerns—with fundamental factors overshadowed by geopolitical tensions—analysts expect market focus to shift back to fundamentals as tensions ease temporarily.