Behrouzifar emphasized the importance of monitoring both economic and geopolitical factors when forecasting oil markets, stating that geopolitical tensions—such as the U.S.-China trade war or regional crises—can abruptly shift market trends. However, in the absence of such unexpected factors, the market remains relatively balanced.

He added that with the start of summer, which coincides with higher demand for products like gasoline, a noticeable drop in oil prices is unlikely in the near term unless a broad economic downturn occurs.

The academic highlighted the role of seasonal demand in market stability, noting that summer is peak season for petroleum product consumption, which typically offsets the impact of increased supply under normal conditions.

Behrouzifar said if prices fall close to $40 per barrel, OPEC+ would be forced to resume supply cuts. However, $60 per barrel appears to be a level where producers and consumers have reached relative consensus.

Eight OPEC+ coalition members decided on Saturday (May 31) to adjust their July supply cuts by a combined 411,000 barrels per day compared to June levels, effectively phasing out reductions over three months. This move comes as low oil inventories and positive market signals suggest balanced conditions will continue. However, members stated the adjustment plan could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions to maintain stability.