The oil and energy ministers of OPEC and non-OPEC countries met today (Monday, October 4) via videoconference while oil prices have reached the highest level since 2018 to above $80/b.

White House spokesman Jen Psaki said the day after the highest oil price in three years (September 29) that the White House was still in talks with OPEC on oil prices and that all possible means were being considered. The White House also expressed concern about high oil prices in August.

At their 19th meeting in July, OPEC and its allies agreed to increase production by a total of 400,000 barrels per day each month to end the supply limit of 5.8 million barrels per day.

The most likely outcome of today's meeting of OPEC+ ministers is the continuation of the current agreement, but scenarios such as an increase in production of 800,000 barrels per day for a month are also tenable, but its implementation in October is very unlikely as the meeting had decided about the group’s output in October during the September meeting.

If the supply of the coalition is to increase, we should expect this increase in November.

OPEC+, in response to the collapse in demand at the height of the Covid-19 outbreak, limited production by 9.7 million barrels per day as of May 2020, equivalent to about 10 percent of global demand, but since then, with demand improving it has eased supply constraints over time.