The World Oil Outlook 2025 (WOO 2025) report was unveiled on the second day of OPEC’s ninth international seminar (Thursday, July 10). According to the report, global energy demand will grow by 23% from 2024 to 2050. Meanwhile, the world’s population is forecast to increase from 8.2 billion in 2024 to about 9.7 billion by 2050, a rise of roughly 18%, driven largely by growth in non-OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries.

Additionally, the global working-age population is expected to expand by 805 million, surpassing 6.1 billion by 2050. This means that despite a 23% increase in energy demand and an 18% rise in total population, the working-age population will grow by only about 15%.

 Changing lifestyles drive energy demand growth

The primary factor behind rising energy demand by 2050 will be shifting lifestyles in developing and emerging economies. Urbanization is expected to accelerate, with 68% of the global population—more than 6.6 billion people—projected to live in cities by then. Currently, 5.5 billion people reside in urban areas, meaning nearly 1.9 billion will migrate to cities by 2050. This shift from rural to urban living will be the most significant demographic change worldwide.

Urbanization is set to increase by 20% by 2050, a key factor justifying the 23% rise in energy demand by mid-century. This transition will also spur higher GDP and economic growth, particularly in developing and emerging economies.

The 2025 World Oil Outlook report took a more cautious approach in projecting global economic growth, limiting its forecasts to 2030.

 Energy boom in emerging economies

The report states that global GDP growth (2024-2030 average) will average 2.9% per year. However, OECD countries—mostly developed economies—are projected to grow at just 1.7% annually during this period, about 40% slower than the rest of the world.

In contrast, China’s economy is expected to expand by 4.4% per year, while Africa’s GDP growth is forecast at 3.4%, above the global average. Among emerging economies, India will lead with the highest growth rate at 6.4% annually from 2024 to 2030.

As a result, the largest increases in energy demand will come from developing and emerging economies, prompting major energy producers to focus on these markets to maintain their share.

With projected global economic growth, worldwide GDP per capita is expected to rise from $21,000 in 2024 to $37,100 by 2050 (in constant 2021 dollars).