Morteza Behrouzifar, a faculty member at the Institute of International Energy Studies (IIES), stated that as geopolitical tensions eased, the risk premium was removed from the oil market. However, he warned that if conflicts reignite and damage oil infrastructure, a price surge—even to triple-digit levels—would not be unexpected.

Behrouzifar said the drop in oil prices after the ceasefire was a direct result of the market's understanding of operational realities. "Global markets focus on facts rather than political narratives or propaganda," he noted. Even limited US intervention was seen by the market as performative, leading to a $3 to $4 decrease in oil prices.

He emphasized that previous price increases were driven by geopolitical concerns, and with those concerns now diminished, the risk premium naturally faded.

Sustainability of price decline depends on conditions 

While reduced tensions are positive, Behrouzifar cautioned that markets remain influenced by multiple factors. With the start of the US and European driving season, seasonal gasoline demand could push prices slightly higher. However, no major price spike is expected unless new geopolitical disruptions occur.

"If tensions flare up again, particularly if oil infrastructure is damaged, prices could jump to triple digits," he warned. Still, he noted the market remains vigilant and pragmatic, not reacting to superficial news or propaganda.

On the roles of the US and China, Behrouzifar explained that the US, now the world's top oil and gas producer, no longer relies on the Persian Gulf as it once did. Meanwhile, China, the region's largest oil importer, remains deeply concerned about supply security and has sought to mediate.

When asked if major oil companies had responded to the ceasefire, he said no significant changes in production or export policies had been observed. The earlier price surge was solely due to security concerns, not fundamental factors.

Behrouzifar stressed that as long as sanctions remain, Iran's return to its full potential in global energy markets will be limited. "Sanctions must be resolved through smart, diplomacy-focused solutions to unlock Iran's true oil, gas, and petrochemical capabilities," he said.