All ORB component values fell last month alongside their respective crude oil benchmarks. West and North African Basket components – Bonny Light, Djeno, Es Sider, Girassol, Rabi Light, Sahara Blend, and Zafiro – declined by $5.35 m-o-m in December, or 6.5% on average, to $77.53/b. Multiple region destination grades – Arab Light, Basrah Light, Iran Heavy, and Kuwait Export – also decreased by $6.08 m-o-m, or 7.1% on average, to settle at $79.52/b. Murban crude declined by $5.65 m-o-m, or 6.8% on average, to settle at $77.68/b, while the Merey crude component fell by $5.51 m-o-m, or 7.8% on average, to settle at $65.23/b.

The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $4.71, or 5.7%, m-o-m, to $77.32/b, and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract fell by $5.26, or 6.8%, to average $72.12/b. The DME Oman front-month contract dropped by $6.23, or 7.5%, m-o-m, to settle at $76.83/b, according to OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.

The front-month ICE Brent/NYMEX WTI spread widened again in December by 55¢ to average $5.20/b. The market structure continued to weaken in all markets as hedge funds and other money managers remained bearish, substantially reducing their long positions, which contributed to volatility in prices.

World oil demand

The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged at 2.2 mb/d, with the OECD growing by around 0.3 mb/d and the non-OECD by about 2.0 mb/d. The global oil demand growth in 2025 is expected to see a robust growth of 1.8 mb/d, y-o-y. The OECD is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to increase by 1.7 mb/d.

World oil supply

The non-OPEC liquids production in 2024 is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, slightly revised down from the previous month’s assessment. The main drivers for liquids supply growth in 2024 are expected to be the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan. The non-OPEC liquids supply growth in 2025 is expected to stand at 1.3 mb/d, mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, Norway, Kazakhstan and Guyana.

OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by around 64 tb/d to average 5.5 mb/d, followed by growth of 110 tb/d in 2025 to average 5.6 mb/d. OPEC-12 crude oil production in December 2023 increased by 73 tb/d, m-o-m, to average 26.70 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.