The UAE is set to reap its best oil windfall of nearly $22 billion this year and the surge will expand both the economy and the external financial surplus. The increase is a result of a sharp rise in oil prices and higher crude production by the UAE in line with an Opec output agreement, according to independent estimates. "The UAE's oil export earnings are expected to climb to nearly $21.8 billion or $22 billion this year from around $17.9 billion last year," said Leo Drollas, Deputy Director of the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies, which is owned by former Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Al Yamani. " The increase is based on an average Opec basket price of around $28.3 a barrel this year compared with $24.3 in 2002…production by the UAE and other Opec members will also be higher by nearly 1.5 million bpd this year," he told Gulf News by telephone. Experts said this year's oil revenues will be the UAE's highest in current prices since it began crude production more than three decades ago. Other GCC states will also bask under the oil bonanza this year, with the global oil giant Saudi Arabia expected to net nearly $75 billion compared with $59.5 billion in 2002. But the UAE's income is projected to fall back to around $13.8 billion in 2004 because of an expected decline in prices and supplies, according to the Economic Intelligence Unit, an affiliate of the London-based Economist Group. EIU's forecasts showed the UAE's oil exports would average around $2.15 million barrels per day this year compared with 1.99 million bpd in 2002. The surge in this year's income will have a positive impact on the overall economy and the current account as it means higher public spending and an increase in total exports. Figures by the Ministry of Planning showed the gross domestic product would grow by around 4.5 per cent in real terms while overall public expenditure could hit a record Dh100 billion ($27.2 billion). Exports are also projected to soar from Dh182 billion ($49.5 billion) in 2002 to Dh195 billion ($53.1 billion) in 2003, widening the trade balance surplus from DhDh44 billion ($11.9 billion) to Dh38 billion ($10.3 billion). "The increase in exports will have a positive impact on the current account which recorded a surplus of around $13.7 billion last year," the Arab Monetary Fund said. "It is a very healthy fiscal position as the surplus is as high as 20 per cent of the GDP." PIN/GN