Examining the structure, challenges, and implications of Syria’s energy sector is particularly important given the political changes in it and the new rulers who have taken power there.
From Self-Sufficiency to Dependence
Before the outbreak of the 2011 crisis, Syria was largely self-sufficient in energy. The country had significant oil reserves and its natural gas sector was under development and produced about 383,000 b/d and contributed significantly to government revenues. Oil and gas sales accounted for approximately 20% of Syria’s revenue, providing a key financial pillar for the Assad government, enabling it to consolidate its control over political and military spheres. The natural gas sector was also growing, with its production increasing to 8.7 bcm. Before 2011, two key oil refineries in Homs and Banias were operational, meeting domestic demand and supplying sufficient refined products.
However, post-2011 conditions got worse rapidly. International sanctions, imposed mainly by the United States and the European Union on the pretext of violent repression of protestors by the Assad government, largely restricted Syria’s ability to export oil and attract foreign investment. Therefore, Syria’s oil production fell from 383,000 b/d to 10,000 b/d. In this way, a country that was once self-sufficient in energy production became largely dependent on fuel imports.
The sanctions reduced production capacity, which caused widespread power shortages. In some areas, access to electricity was down to several hours a day. Energy supply challenges gave rise to deep consequences for the Syrian government, causing public discontent and resorting to unofficial and illegal fuel imports.
Infiltration Bid
Following the fall of the Assad government and the power void created in the Syrian energy market, which was mainly handled by Iran and Russia, various foreign actors sought to use the current situation to their advantage. Countries such as Turkey and Qatar, the most important regional supporters of Syria's new rulers, have expressed interest in participating in the country's energy sector, offering plans to supply fuel and facilitate the reconstruction of Syria’s energy infrastructure. Saudi Arabia has also expressed its readiness to address Syria's energy needs.
Meanwhile, Turkey seeks to establish economic and trade agreements with the new Syrian government and intends to play an effective role in Syria's economic growth by investing in its energy infrastructure and reconstruction. The Qatar-Syria-Turkey gas pipeline project, which failed to materialize during the Assad era, has been brought back into focus. Turkey intends to act as a regional energy hub. The project could provide an opportunity to transmit natural gas to Europe. Turkish companies are also expected to play a major role in the exploration and development of Syria’s oil and gas fields, mainly in the Kurdish-controlled eastern regions.
However, competition between foreign powers to control these resources, as well as the complexities of Syria’s geopolitical landscape, do not provide easy conditions for foreign actors. Turkey faces a major problem i.e. Kurds when it comes to the exploration and development of oil and gas fields. At the same time, the US has dominated Syrian oil fields in the eastern Euphrates region in recent years and has illegally exploited the oil in this region. The Americans will not simply disregard this great advantage in Syria and will not cede it to Turkey or any other foreign actors.
Future Outlooks and Challenges
Despite the dark scenarios that currently exist in the Syrian energy sector, there is also potential for improvement and even growth in production in the future. For example, in case Syria becomes stable again and sanctions are eased, it could significantly enhance its oil and natural gas production. At the same time, Syria could act as a transit country for natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, connecting it to European markets. Moreover, with the emergence of a new government, foreign investment in the country’s energy sector may be facilitated.
However, an optimistic outlook for the Syrian energy market requires domestic political stability, resolution of disputes over ownership of oil fields, and the lifting of paralyzing sanctions. Although there are attractive opportunities in Syria’s energy sector, there are still significant challenges ahead, including the need to reconstruct infrastructure, build political consensus, and ease or lift sanctions. As things stand, Syria is undoubtedly still far from achieving such objectives.
Shuaib Bahman
International Affairs Expert
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