While continued strong demand from motorists is outpacing gasoline supplies, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects world energy consumption to climb by 57 percent between 2004 and 2030 largely on surging demands in parts of swiftly developing Asia.

The EIA says that energy demand will experience its most rapid growth in nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD).

Demand would be particularly high in non-OECD Asia, which includes India and China, where strong projected economic growth drives the increase in energy use, the EIA said in its “International Energy Outlook 2007” report, release this month:

Energy demand in the non-OECD Asia region is projected to grow at an average rate of 3.2 percent per year, more than doubling over the 2004 to 2030 period and accounting for more than 65 percent of the increase in energy use for the non-OECD region as a whole. In 2004, energy consumption in the countries of non-OECD Asia made up just over 48 percent of the non-OECD total; in 2030, its share is projected to be above 56 percent.

The U.S., the world’s biggest energy consumer, and the booming economies of China and India account for nearly half of the projected growth in world liquids use, according to the report. To meet demand, the supply in 2030 is projected to be 35 million barrels of oil equivalent per day higher than the 2004 level of 83 million barrels per day.

On a global basis, the transportation sector accounts for 68 percent of the total projected increase in liquids use between 2004 and 2030, followed by the industrial sector, which accounts for another 27 percent of the increment in world liquids demand. Energy is consumed in the industrial sector by a diverse group of industries — including manufacturing, agriculture, mining and construction — and for a wide range of activities, such as processes and assembly, space conditioning, lighting, etc.

According to the EIA:

The industrial sector is the largest of the end-use sectors, consuming more than 50 percent of the delivered energy worldwide in 2004. Worldwide, energy consumption in the industrial sector is projected to increase by an average of 1.8 percent per year from 2004 through 2030, as compared with 1.0-percent average annual growth in the global population. Industrial energy consumption is expected to increase in all countries and regions; however, much slower growth in industrial sector energy use is projected for the OECD region than for the non-OECD region, with annual average increases of 0.6 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively.

Liquids remain the most important fuels for transportation, as there are few alternatives that can be expected to compete widely with petroleum-based liquids; however, the role of oil outside the transportation sector continues to be eroded because of high world oil prices in most regions of the world.

Yet rising oil prices are seen as restraining growth in demand for petroleum and other liquid fuels after 2015; their share of overall energy use is expected to fall from 38 percent in 2004 to a projected 34 percent in 2030. Liquids consumption is expected to grow strongly, however, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030.

A projected 21-million-barrels-per-day increase in production by members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a six-million-barrels-per-day increase in non-OPEC countries would be needed to satisfy demand, according to the EIA"s latest energy outlook.

Other report highlights include the following:

• Coal consumption, which grows an average annual rate of 2.2 percent, is the fastest-growing energy source worldwide. Coal is an attractive fuel for nations with access to ample coal resources, especially in coal-rich countries such as China, India and the U.S.

• World nuclear power capacity is projected to rise from 368 gigawatts in 2004 to 481 gigawatts in 2030. Declines in nuclear capacity are projected only in OECD Europe, where several countries — including Germany and Belgium — have either plans or mandates to phase out nuclear power, and where some old reactors are expected to be retired and not replaced.

• Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions are projected to rise from 26.9 billion metric tons in 2004 to 33.9 billion metric tons in 2015 and 42.9 billion metric tons in 2030.

PIN/AFP