Gas's outsized role

Saeid Tavakoli, speaking on a TV program on Sunday evening, said gas has grown from an industrial issue into a social and security matter. No other country relies on gas as much as Iran: nearly 99-100% of cities are connected, 98% of the population is covered, and all power plants, industries and productive sectors depend on it. He described fuel-basket diversification as an important part of Article 46, which would give more flexibility across energy sectors.

Winter shortfall

Tavakoli said that in past years, possibly because of ad hoc handling of energy, the country faced imbalances of 200-250 million cubic meters on some peak days. The US-Israeli attack on four refineries on 27 Esfand last year removed 230 million cubic meters of production capacity. About 100 million cubic meters were restored as early production before winter, but this winter the country faces a further 130 million cubic meter deficit on top of the 200-250 million peak imbalance.

Operators and the one-billion-cubic-meter target

Under a government decision, pursued with the Article 90 Commission, two types of energy operator have been established. So far, 109 type-two contracts have been signed in five sectors: agriculture, industry, power plants, the public sector and households. Savings are estimated to exceed one billion cubic meters by year-end, with the currently projected figure at 979 million. With five months left, that implies roughly 200 million cubic meters of savings per month.

Planned targets by sector total 2,365,250 cases:

- Households: 2,337,084

- Power plants: 7

- Agriculture (greenhouses, poultry): 2,283

- Industry: 609

- Commercial (bakeries, restaurants): 5,329

- Other (mosques, public facilities): 19,938

Examples of savings

Operators act as intermediaries between gas producers and consumers, identifying sectors with savings potential. Tavakoli cited about 3,260 brick-making subscribers: traditional production uses 300 cubic meters of gas per ton, but one operator's technology change would cut that to 27.4. A knowledge-based company in Mashhad has patented equipment for industrial bakeries that can cut energy use by 50-70% while improving bread quality. Eighteen units are installed, with 40 expected by year-end. Poultry farms are also seeing varied efficiency measures, all without direct government involvement.

Household savings

About 70-80% of a home's winter energy goes to heating, so more efficient heating creates more room to cut consumption. Every one-degree drop in temperature adds about 25 million cubic meters of national gas demand, equal to one South Pars phase. Savings potential is identified by finding buildings that consume above standard, conducting energy audits, and applying tailored fixes under the National Building Regulations (Topic 19). Depending on the building, this could mean boiler-room upgrades, high-efficiency heaters, or sealing and insulation. NIGC has already optimized around 130,000 boiler rooms.

Savings certificates on the energy exchange

After measures are implemented and measured, the savings are issued to the beneficiary as certificates, which are tradable on the energy exchange. Each cubic meter of saved gas has sold for about 74,500 tomans. Tavakoli said household potential is far higher than current figures, and the goal is to return the economic value of measured savings to consumers or investors as an incentive.

Type-one operator begins

Tavakoli said the threat has become an opportunity. He announced that the base definition of the type-one operator was completed the same day, along with a contract for Sabzevar county, which has 21 CGS stations. He cautioned that operators are only one part of saving efforts and will not close the entire gas imbalance on their own.