Before the fighting began on February 27, the ORB stood at $70.07. Fourteen days later, on March 13, prices had risen by more than $50, topping $120.86 per barrel.

Market data shows that on the first trading day after the conflict broke out—Monday, March 2—OPEC’s reference basket climbed more than 11% to $78.24, continuing a steep upward trend through subsequent days.

After Iran’s strategic closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to several regional oil facilities and storage sites, the ORB rose to $96.33 by the end of the first week of hostilities (Friday, March 6).

At the start of the second week (Monday, March) the benchmark opened above $115. Despite temporary downward pressures from market speculation and misinformation about tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the price ultimately climbed to $120.86 by week’s end (Friday, March 13) as the conflict intensified.

In total, the OPEC basket’s value has jumped more than 71% in two weeks. Analysts had warned that any military confrontation between Iran and the United States could make the Strait of Hormuz a decisive factor in global oil pricing. Traders now await next week’s developments to see where the market heads in the third week of the war.