Morteza Behrouzifar, speaking on the impact of recent tensions between the US and Iran on global oil supply and prices, said the Persian Gulf holds the world's largest volume of oil reserves. Apart from Russia and the US, the biggest oil producers are located in this region, and any tension there can lead to higher energy prices. In addition to oil, it could also affect the gas market.

Expressing hope that the conflict would not be prolonged, Behrouzifar said if tensions are resolved quickly, oil prices will return to previous levels and will not see a significant increase. However, as long as tensions persist, their expansion to oil facilities could be a disaster for the region and the world.

Asked about the position and actions of the OPEC+ coalition regarding recent fluctuations in the oil market, the faculty member said a significant portion of OPEC+ members that are major producers are located in this very region. If the conflict expands and oil facilities are targeted, taking a significant portion of oil production off the market, other members would practically be unable to compensate, although rising oil prices and reduced exports from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz might benefit only one OPEC+ member: Russia.

Energy security and a shift in consumer strategy

Behrouzifar said continued instability in the region severely threatens the energy security of consumer countries, forcing them to seek alternative sources for energy or turn to their own unconventional reserves, such as shale.

He said China, one of the largest holders of shale reserves that has not yet tapped them extensively, will certainly turn to these resources if it feels its energy security is at risk. Meanwhile, countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which have previously taken steps to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, have reduced their dependence on that waterway. These tensions will accelerate the energy transition and speed up the use of unconventional reserves.

Noting that consumer countries will seek alternative sources, Behrouzifar said companies active in the liquefied natural gas sector, such as American firms, will benefit from this situation. The greater the tension, the wider the price gap and the greater the diversion from conventional energy routes.

In the long term, Behrouzifar identified the development of renewable energies and the use of unconventional reserves as the biggest changes ahead. Just as the US has reduced its dependence on the Persian Gulf to nearly zero, other major consumer countries will follow suit, and the Persian Gulf region may come to be seen as an "unreliable" region, which would not be in the interest of the countries in the region.