Fereydoun Barkeshli said that the global oil market has entered one of the most sensitive and tense periods in its modern history following the attack.

The Persian Gulf region, the pulsating heart of global energy, is now at the center of a widespread geopolitical crisis that could fundamentally disrupt the balance of global energy supply and demand, Barkeshli said.

He emphasized that any disruption to Iran's oil exports or a threat to the region's energy infrastructure would not only impact prices and send a wave of uncertainty through international markets. It would also severely degrade the investment security rating for the Persian Gulf, which has long stood at A and A+, he said.

Tensions in the Persian Gulf and the Threat to the Strait of Hormuz Rattle Oil Markets

This translates into capital flight and a lasting or long-term downgrade to long-term investment planning in countries that have been investor havens for years, Barkeshli said.

The focal point of these tensions is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passageway through which a significant portion of the world's oil travels, he added.

The energy expert noted that threats to shipping security in this waterway could shock global oil prices, and the market would react sharply. In such a scenario, maritime transport insurance, logistics costs, tanker freight rates, and the exchange rates of energy-importing countries would all be affected.

21 mbd of Oil Pass Through Strait of Hormuz

Barkeshli said that 21 million barrels of oil transit the Strait of Hormuz to global markets daily. In addition, one-fifth of the world's LPG passes through the strait. In other words, the impact of a closure of the strait on global gas trade would be even greater than for oil.

He said higher global oil prices would create more severe economic challenges for an already unstable global economy. Most countries in the Persian Gulf have based their annual budgets on an average global oil price of $80 a barrel. Saudi Arabia, which also has ambitious development plans, needs oil at $90 a barrel to avoid a budget deficit.

Therefore, the price of oil is only one side of the equation, the analyst said. The other side is the volume of exports. Oil at $100 a barrel is favorable for producers, but only if export volumes remain healthy. At the same time, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz wouldn't just affect oil and gas. Commercial ships carrying a variety of needed goods also transit this waterway.

Trump's Policy and the Impact of Tensions on the Global Oil Market

Barkeshli said Trump's stated policy for months has been based on controlling key international waterways. The Panama Canal, the Danish straits, the Strait of Malacca, and the Gulf of Aden are all targets for Trump to dominate international maritime trade, he said. Trump could have achieved many of his goals through peaceful means, but under pressure from Israel and the exposure of the Epstein sex crime case, he agreed to join Israel in attacking Iran.

He noted that global markets opened Monday with a mix of fear and hope, posting a price increase of about 5%. Global prices had already risen 20% from January 2026 until the US-Israeli attack.

The oil market analyst said part of the price shock had therefore already been priced in. At the same time, major oil buyers, particularly China, began heavy stockpiling in the second quarter of 2025. Today, China has about 1.5 billion barrels in storage.

Stockpiled Sanctioned Oil and the Risk of a Price Spike

Barkeshli stressed that most major consumers have also been buying and stockpiling sanctioned oil from Russia, Venezuela, and Iran. However, if the military situation continues and tankers and oil facilities are threatened, prices will experience a sharp upward trajectory.

In such a scenario, this would be very costly for Trump, who faces midterm congressional elections in November and is hosting the FIFA World Cup just before that, he concluded.