And though Israel's submariners are breathing easier since Libyan leader Mu-ammar Gaddafi vowed to stop developing weapons of mass-destruction this month, Israeli top brass pr-edict an even greater role for the fleet in a changing Middle East. Above all is the idea that Israel, widely believed to have nuclear weapons, wo-uld use the sea for striking back in the event – however unlikely – that bases on land are overrun in a war. Though Iran says it has no hostile designs, Teh-ran's atomic programme heads the list of Israeli fears. Navy chief Admiral Yedidiya Ya'ari said submarines were a crucial deterrent. "The ultimate role of the submarine is to linger for extended periods, almost anywhere it needs to be, undetected," he said, declining to comment on foreign analysts' assessments that the vessels carry nuclear-tipped missiles. "It has a range of functions including hitting the enemy from where he least expects it. You can understand that as you wish," he said. Iranian and Syrian officials, who have described Israel's submarine fleet as an offensive non-conventional capability that threa-tens regional stability, were not available for comment. Three Dolphin-class submarines are the vanguard of a navy that otherwise acts primarily as Israel's coastguard, cutting off would-be infiltrators from Lebanon and Palestinian-run Gaza. According to security sources, the German-made Dolphins go as far as North Africa and the Gulf to monitor enemy capabilities. Analysts believe they carry nuclear missiles for any "second-strike" retaliation. The Israeli navy is unmatched by any Middle East foe's – a fact brought home in 2001 when frogmen seized a Gaza-bound ship carrying arms in the Red Sea and towed it to Eilat instead. Yet the navy wants an unspecified number of new submarines – each costing as much as $400 million – over the next decade, and also plans to upgrade three World War Two-era Vickers craft. Helping Ya'ari swim against the current of defence budget cuts has been the hawkish head of Israel's parliamentary defence committee, Yuval Shteinitz. "The threat is not from other navies, but from stand-off weapons on our borders," Shteinitz said, referring to rockets used by Palestinian militants and Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas, as well as Syrian and Iranian long-range missile programmes. He outlines a doomsday scenario in which about a dozen ground targets in Israel – air bases and what foreign experts believe are ballistic launch pads – are paralysed by missile sal-voes or sabotage, leaving the country virtually defenceless. As alarmist as such outlooks seem to many analysts given Israeli military might, few doubt the seriousness of intent in a Jewish state still facing neighbours sworn to its destruction. "With their lack of strategic depth, the Israelis will always be very much concerned with self-defence and taking the fight to the enemy. Naval forces are an important means to this end," said Stephen Saunders, editor of Jane's Fighting Ships. Part of the Israeli navy's reasoning for expanding the submarine fleet is the possible relinquishing of the West Bank and Gaza Strip as foreseen under a US-led peace roadmap for Palestinian independence. That might leave Israel just 16km at its narrowest and most populous point. "According to the road-map, which we accepted, the territory under our control will shrink," said Ya'ari. "A naval force is outside this threat area, making it a crucial back-up for national security." Ya'ari also sees a regional role for Israeli cooperation with Western navies to thwart militancy in its hea-rtland. Stopping traffickers in weapons of mass destruction is central to the US-led "war on terror". But some are sceptical of a big part for Israel's navy given regional sensibilities and the need of the United States to be sensitive to the concerns of Arab governments. "A ring of steel around the Middle East sounds like a politically difficult thing to do, not least because the core issue as far as terrorism is concerned is the Israeli-Arab conflict," said Saunders. Fallout from Israel's crac-kdowns on the Palestinians may have cost it dearly on the naval front already. Last month, a German magazine said the country, having long whittled down defence support for Israel, had decided not to sell it any more Dolphins. P.I.N//GN Online