The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB), which opened last week (Monday, March 16) at about $129 per barrel, rose roughly 11% to $142.86 by the end of the week on March 20.

Before the conflict began, on Feb. 27, a barrel of OPEC oil was priced at $70.07. Based on those figures, the benchmark has more than doubled since the onset of the war.

Market data show the ORB rose only about 2% at the start of trading on March 16, but prices accelerated as regional tensions intensified, including reported strikes on the South Pars refinery complex and other energy facilities in the Persian Gulf.

US Messaging Fails to Cool Market

The price surge came as the US Treasury Department attempted to calm markets with reports of a one‑month suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil sales.

Saman Ghodousi, caretaker of public relations at Iran’s Oil Ministry, wrote on X that Iran has no unsold crude on the water or excess supply for additional markets, saying the US announcement was aimed at reassuring buyers and influencing market sentiment.

Hormuz Strait Oversight Remains a Key Factor

Iran’s continued “smart control” of the Strait of Hormuz remains a major upward signal for oil markets. Still, prices have reacted sharply to statements from both sides, rising and falling within hours. Analysts are watching how the volatile market will behave in the fourth week of the Ramadan conflict.